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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 2:06 pm 
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thats not so bad yesterday the brass monkeys were complaining. :o :roll:

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:25 pm 
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Thanks for the info Moley , and congrats on the web masters , for getting things running again
Now the big question is , will we get a nice summer this year , unlike the last 3 years
long and hot is what i call a summer by the way , but i am a dreamer
just be nice to switch of my heating for more then two weeks this year , unlike last
what do you see in your forcasts ?


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 9:32 pm 
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john wrote:
Thanks for the info Moley , and congrats on the web masters , for getting things running again
Now the big question is , will we get a nice summer this year , unlike the last 3 years
long and hot is what i call a summer by the way , but i am a dreamer
just be nice to switch of my heating for more then two weeks this year , unlike last
what do you see in your forcasts ?



Your welcome John, and thanks for posting. Oh how I wish I could predict that far ahead, let alone with a smidgen of accuracy. I would be a very rich man, and Im anything but !

4-5 days ahead is about the limit for most actual forecasts. From about 6-10 days its a case of looking for a trend, beyond 10 days its pretty much FI ( Fantasy Island....and yes that term is used in weather circles....even by the Pro's ! ).

Im with you on one thing though, Im a dreamer when it comes to summer, and the last 3 years ( I would go so far as to say the last 5 ) have been a let down in many ways. I think Im right in saying that July and August were the only 2 months of 2011 when the CET ( Central England Temperature ) fell below the 30 year average. It may be a case of be careful what you wish for in 2012 though, as London and The South East are facing the very real possibility of drought orders being imposed if rainfall doesn't pick up in the coming months:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthn ... -high.html

For once I don't think this is a case of the press scaremongering either. I have read somewhere that the last 12 months have been the driest 12 month period on record in our region, and parts of the Midlands and East Anglia have been under a drought order for some time already. Im all for a bit of warmth and sunshine, but water is an essential ingrediant of life, and a shortage of it is not a good thing. In the Caribbean, rainfall is eloquently called ' Liquid Sunshine' for a good reason !

Back to our region though and I was initially suprised at Kremms report of a frost free night in his location but it ties in very well with Heathrows minimum of 0.7c ( Met Office ) and Iver 0.6c ( aws/pws ). Here in Northwood my weather station reached -0.2c. Northolt seems to be something of a frost hollow, reporting -4.4c ( Met Office ). Tonight looks like being another borderline case, and my weather station display is currently predicting rain for later on. Hmmm.

I'll be taking a closer look in the next few days, in the meantime thanks again for reading and posting. Moley 8-)


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2012 8:50 am 
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Not frost free Moley, just that the temp was unexpectedly above freezing when I surfaced.

Just above freezing again this morning but Woking is enjoying -3°C, brrrr

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:43 pm 
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The milder weather I mentioned in earlier posts arrived right on time, and it seems the potential for colder weather in London and The South East this weekend has all but dissapeared. I will try and do a more detailed outlook shortly.

Moley


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 2:46 pm 
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My apologies for the lack of updates recently, partly due to personal circumstances and a lack of time, but also due to the level of uncertainty from the usual sources I tend to base my predictions on.

In addition to current and historical information and data, I also look at a number of computer models to try and detect a trend in the likely weather pattern ahead. Its not unheard of for these models to disagree to some extent, but the level of disagreement just now is quite simply impossible for the likes of me to unravel ! It has to be said that even with the level of information and expertise the UK Met Office have at their disposal, they seem to have admitted to being equally bamboozled, as per this link :

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012 ... -february/

All I can say at this time is the weather in our region for the next few days is likely to remain fairly unsettled, but with nothing too severe over the weekend. It may feel a bit chillier as winds switch to a more northerly direction, but actual temperatures will remain close to, or a little above average. Probably around 8-10c for most of us. Expect some occasional showers, but not a complete washout by any means.

Im focussing on next Thursday ( January 26th ) for the first signs of a real change, but thats still a long way off, so I will try and update as we move nearer the time.

I have to say, this is probably one of the worst updates in terms of predictions I've ever made in the 2 years or so I've been doing this now. Thanks for reading anyway. Moley :-(


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 5:10 am 
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Moley wrote:
My apologies for the lack of updates recently, partly due to personal circumstances and a lack of time..............
............Im focusing on next Thursday ( January 26th ) for the first signs of a real change, but thats still a long way off, so I will try and update as we move nearer the time...........(


A change is now imminent as a cold front continues to slowly wend its way from west to east across the UK overnight. It should reach London by around 6am this morning ( Thursday ), bringing a brief spell of rain and blustery winds as it passes through. This should clear us by the start of the rush hour.

Ahead of the front the air is fairly mild, with southerly winds, but behind it is a colder polar air mass, so while we will see some clearer skies with decent spells of sunshine later on Thursday, its going to feel chillier. Some occasionally thundery showers with hail may well develop further west, but I don't expect these to reach our region. The odd shower can't be ruled out though.

Its still a very mixed outlook, with little or no agreement between the computer models beyond Sunday.

I will try and keep this topic running, but finding it a bit of a struggle at the moment. Thanks for reading. Moley :|


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 8:30 am 
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Heavy rain this morning and as you say, a cold snap coming in, just in time for the weekend.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2012 3:06 pm 
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Moley wrote:
...........................

Its still a very mixed outlook, with little or no agreement between the computer models beyond Sunday...............

|


The situation is slowly evolving, the computer models are spotting a trend, and the Daily Excess, Daily Fail and even The Telegraph are now climbing aboard the Siberian Express. The first two come as no suprise, even though they have now lost their most ridiculous and inaccurate source of sensationalist weather headline writers. More on that from me in another post, for now I will just concentrate on the outlook.

For the the likes of an amateur like me who follows the weather as a hobby, and watches the numerous computer generated models the often used phrase is ' The trend is your friend '. In straightforward terms don't look at any one outlook in isolation, look for a pattern to form. Up until this morning I have kept my powder dry for this very reason.

Well I can finally say with some degree of confidence that a pattern/trend is now forming, and it points towards a cold sting in the tail for this winter. There's a cold air mass to our east and in the coming days its getting colder and spreading further west towards the UK. How far west is still uncertain, but in the next few days East Anglia, London and The South East should certainly notice the influence. At the same time the Atlantic is trying to push through some milder air from the west, and later next week that could lead to some very wintry weather if the two collide.

Im expecting this weekend to see temperatures gradually falling in our region, with a slight chance of snow showers the further east you are, but overnight frosts are increasingly likely. The Met Office are beginning to put out cold weather alerts, and I know they are issuing warnings to local authorities and the health services, not something they would do lightly in my opinion.

Thats not to say we are in for a spell of really severe weather on a par with December 2010, but compared with the mild winter we have had so far, a change is definately on the way. I will be trying to update more regularly in the next few days.

Thanks for reading, please feel free to comment. Moley 8-)


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:49 am 
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Driving back from West Drayton this evening, I went through a proper snow shower at Stockley Park. It was coming down thick and fast, in big chunks settling immediately on the road. But by the time I got to the roundabout to turn right towards Merryman's Corner, there was no sign of it at all, the roads were bone dry.


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