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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:18 am 
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http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-risk-major-currency-2012-7

Quote:
Hyperinflation is a fiscal phenomenon, resulting from unsustainable deficits. Historically, it occurs after central banks monetize a large amount of debt.
It's actually more closely related to deflation than inflation "as hyperinflation can be viewed as the result of a failed attempt at printing money to avoid the deflation that would be caused by austerity."
Currently, it is a concern for the some major currencies because their path is exactly like that described above; large fiscal deficits have forced austerity and deleveraging, and countries are responding with large scale monetary easing.
The warning signs are here for several economies. UBS research finds that hyperinflation tends to happen when deficits financing more than 20 percent of government expenditure. India, the US, Japan, Spain and the UK all qualify.

Quote:
"Although we see a very small chance of hyperinflation in the near future, the risk should not be neglected, particularly given the ongoing unsustainable global fiscal and monetary expansion," writes Lack.

My Bold

Along with Cameron's statement this morning about extending austerity through to 2020 demonstrates the economic model is well and truly broken....

My god what a mess!!


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:20 pm 
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geezer466. You seem to have your finger firmly on the pulse when it comes to financial matters, and though I hate to say it, your Doomesday scenarios look to be panning out.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... storm.html

I was extremely pessimistic back in 2007/08 when the first wave of economic gloom engulfed the world. I thought that another Great Depression was a matter of months, if not weeks away. Governments reacted swiftly though but it seems all they were doing all along was kicking the can further and further down the road. In truth I don't think any of them have the faintest idea what to do next.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:55 pm 
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Only this week the media and Government were crowing that inflation had fallen back sharply, and it is expected to continue to fall through the coming months. Clearly, the media and Government must be living in some parallel universe that is totally divorced from reality.

If only the same media that is reporting falling inflation would look closer at the news reports contained within itself, the predictions for price inflation would be something very much worse than we've experienced to date.

The extremely wet weather the UK has endured this year can only have seriously detrimental effects on the harvest this year. Here in the West Country, the talk is of a harvest disaster, with acres of farmland converted to a compost heap by the continuing floods.

The media has been reporting extreme weather in the United States, the bread-basket of the world. This report http://news.yahoo.com/worst-drought-sin ... 46529.html paints a much more serious picture for food prices than the media and Government would have us know about:
Quote:
About 55 percent of the contiguous United States is in a drought, just as corn plants should be pollinating, a period when adequate moisture is crucial. The United States ships more than half of all world exports of corn, which is made into dozens of products, from starch and ethanol to livestock feed.
Quote:
Now, because of the drought, corn prices are flirting with $8 per bushel, and that could boost food prices.
With much of the Midwest pasture laid waste by the drought and ranchers facing climbing feed costs, many ranchers have begun liquidating their herds, which could translate into higher prices for meat next year.
"Based on my conversations with producers, I would say 75 percent of the corn crop in the heart of the drought is beyond help," said grains analyst Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana.
Quote:
Weather problems were also reported in Eastern Europe and Asia, mirroring drought that dented Argentina and Brazil's last harvest.
Black Sea grain producer Kazakhstan was preparing for a below-average crop this year due to an "alarming" drought in the country's main growing regions.

The United Nations food agency said earlier this month that the U.S. drought was expected to see global food prices snap three months of declines in its July figures.

Now couple expected global food shortages over the coming months with Government approved hyperinflation through the use of QE, and the outlook for inflation is looking very serious. And that is before the banks start to raise the price of everything in order to off-set the huge fines that are coming their way for LIBOR fiddling and money laundering (HSBC) activities.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:49 pm 
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Moley wrote:
geezer466. You seem to have your finger firmly on the pulse when it comes to financial matters, and though I hate to say it, your Doomesday scenarios look to be panning out.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... storm.html

I was extremely pessimistic back in 2007/08 when the first wave of economic gloom engulfed the world. I thought that another Great Depression was a matter of months, if not weeks away. Governments reacted swiftly though but it seems all they were doing all along was kicking the can further and further down the road. In truth I don't think any of them have the faintest idea what to do next.


All the time they think they can solve the debt problem with more debt they will just makes things worse.. Look at the example of the Eurozone, the markets price lending to sovereigns like Spain Italy on their ability to pay it back in the future. All they do to try and get round this is dream up ever more fancy ways of kicking the debt down the road with convenient promises to pay that most other Countries don't way to pay. The debt situation problems in Greece, Portugal and Ireland are so bad that foreign investors refuse to even consider lending to them hence the required bail outs.
Part of the problem as far as the EU saw it was those nasty credit ratings agencies like Moody's marking down Soveriegns so the EU talks about banning them? :|

The UK Government has tried to reduce the deficit but the economic situation and falls in tax income are just making things worse. With all the public sector cuts (most of these have not kicked in yet) we have had since the 2010 election we are today not much better off than we were then.

Not the fault of the government perhaps as they are at least trying to do something about it but the debt laden economic mess the UK and the rest of the World (mainly our trading partners) has gotten themselves into. Many berate Osborne for not creating the growth we need to climb out of recession but the truth is that growth is probably untenable whatever government happens to be in power.

Growth would be about giving people disposable income to spend on the goods and services but with high inflation, low or non existent wage growth. high taxation and existing debts to service most people simply do not have as much money.

Until they solve that one. growth will remain an illusion.

Seems they have made some dramatic investment decisions in the last week or so to boost the railways. Whilst this will of course help it is not a solution in itself as they will still be borrowing the money to perform this work.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:17 pm 
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Westonman wrote:
..................The extremely wet weather the UK has endured this year can only have seriously detrimental effects on the harvest this year. Here in the West Country, the talk is of a harvest disaster, with acres of farmland converted to a compost heap by the continuing floods.

The media has been reporting extreme weather in the United States, the bread-basket of the world. This report http://news.yahoo.com/worst-drought-sin ... 46529.html paints a much more serious picture for food prices than the media and Government would have us know about:
Quote:
About 55 percent of the contiguous United States is in a drought, just as corn plants should be pollinating, a period when adequate moisture is crucial. The United States ships more than half of all world exports of corn, which is made into dozens of products, from starch and ethanol to livestock feed.
Quote:
Now, because of the drought, corn prices are flirting with $8 per bushel, and that could boost food prices.



As you may know Westonman, I am a keen follower of all things weather related so the above comes as no suprise to me. It sounds like history repeating itself, with the Dust Bowl of the 1930's in the USA about to happen again.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:11 pm 
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Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:08 pm
Posts: 2
Location: Woodside, New York
Westonman wrote:
Only this week the media and Government were crowing that inflation had fallen back sharply, and it is expected to continue to fall through the coming months. Clearly, the media and Government must be living in some parallel universe that is totally divorced from reality.

If only the same media that is reporting falling inflation would look closer at the news reports contained within itself, the predictions for price inflation would be something very much worse than we've experienced to date.

The extremely wet weather the UK has endured this year can only have seriously detrimental effects on the harvest this year. Here in the West Country, the talk is of a harvest disaster, with acres of farmland converted to a compost heap by the continuing floods.

The media has been reporting extreme weather in the United States, the bread-basket of the world. This report http://news.yahoo.com/worst-drought-sin ... 46529.html paints a much more serious picture for food prices than the media and Government would have us know about:
Quote:
About 55 percent of the contiguous United States is in a drought, just as corn plants should be pollinating, a period when adequate moisture is crucial. The United States ships more than half of all world exports of corn, which is made into dozens of products, from starch and ethanol to livestock feed.
Quote:
Now, because of the drought, corn prices are flirting with $8 per bushel, and that could boost food prices.
With much of the Midwest pasture laid waste by the drought and ranchers facing climbing feed costs, many ranchers have begun liquidating their herds, which could translate into higher prices for meat next year.
"Based on my conversations with producers, I would say 75 percent of the corn crop in the heart of the drought is beyond help," said grains analyst Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana.
Quote:
Weather problems were also reported in Eastern Europe and Asia, mirroring drought that dented Argentina and Brazil's last harvest.
Black Sea grain producer Kazakhstan was preparing for a below-average crop this year due to an "alarming" drought in the country's main growing regions.

The United Nations food agency said earlier this month that the U.S. drought was expected to see global food prices snap three months of declines in its July figures.

Now couple expected global food shortages over the coming months with Government approved hyperinflation through the use of QE, and the outlook for inflation is looking very serious. And that is before the banks start to raise the price of everything in order to off-set the huge fines that are coming their way for LIBOR fiddling and money laundering (HSBC) activities.


Many crops have been burned, including grains such as corn and wheat grains that are precursors to many foods such as sodas, cereals, baked goods, dairy products, chicken and beef. According to the United States DOA, the cost of food will start increasing in stores across the country later this year. The price hike will be driven by harvest shortages, due to extreme droughts in the Midwest, Midwest droughts will raise the price of food.


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