Welcome to the website and this topic, and thanks for posting Crowland.

The media are certainly getting some mileage out of this potential storm and it's a mixed blessing to be honest. On the one hand it's good the general public are being made aware, but the downside is the usual suspects ( Daily Express in particular ) are hyping it to ridiculous levels which does nobody any favours.

So trying to put things in perspective, I think this storm has the potential to be quite severe for us here in London and The South East. The PREDICTED track of the storm is still showing that the South Coast will see the strongest winds, and these are most likely to occur after midnight Sunday into early Monday morning. The timing may be several hours either way though.

It's worth mentioning this predicted storm is only just starting to develop out in the Atlantic, hence the uncertainty about it's path and progress. Fair play to the Met Office and numerous other sources for picking up on the possibility several days ago.

The most recent predictions I have seen for MAXIMUM wind gusts are just estimates, but they do come from reliable sources, ie: professional forecasters.

Coastal locations from Cornwall to The Isle of Wight : 80- 95 mph

Coastal locations from Isle of Wight to Kent : 68- 80 mph

Inland locations as far north as London : 62- 75 mph


Those figures look on the high side to me, and are based on possible wind gusts lasting 2-3 minutes at a time.

It's not going to be the Armageddon some media sources are predicting, but it still makes sense to stay tuned to local forecasts and plan your journey accordingly.

Thanks as always for reading and posting. Moley

It's at times like this that your weather interest is absolutely vital to us.

Keep it up

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Lets be careful out there !

Moley, how do those wind speeds compare with Michael Fish's 1987 storm?

I was working in the fire service and was on duty that night. It was an incredible night of witnessing how fragile us humans are (and what we have created) against the forces of nature.

During my long & exhausting 42 continuous hour shift (many on the day shift couldnt get in, so we stayed on duty) I went to many calls: Cars under trees, A gas main leaking, A serious fire caused by a LPG camping lantern (huge power cuts) where it was almost impossible to roll out and connect fire hoses in the high wind, A tower crane which lost it's concrete ballast and was about to fall, and the most serious call - a large chimney stack fallen through a massive mansion block and demolishing the stone staircase on all six floors & trapping scores of worried residents in their flats. We had to use a 45ft ladder to reach some. It was worrying seeing this huge ladder being pushed sideways along a wall with a firefighter and rather elderly man half way down it. Others were picked to safety by a hydraulic platform (cherry picker) which was perhaps working well past it's safe limits

I heard trees falling as we stood in the dark waiting for the gas company to arrive to deal with a main ripped up by a falling tree, not knowing whether the next one was for us. I saw massive trees rolling through Hyde Park like brushwood and experienced driving through the west end in complete darkness with corrugated iron sheets, rubbish bins, scaffolding boards and other stuff being thrown at the fire engine like some kind of Japanese TV game show.

Thank goodness it wasn't raining though, as the damage would have been far worse. 13 punters died in the storm and countless people were injured or made homeless. An amazingly small figure really when you consider the unexpected violence that night . This included firefighters who died in Dorset whose fire appliance was crushed by a falling tree

I will be getting torches and candles ready and clearing my garden of projectiles in a while. I think I'd rather be in the storm rather than passively waiting for it to hit

I remember that big storm in 1987 very well. I walked out of the house to go to work and there was a tree across the road, walked around the corner to see another one - it was very odd. I had slept through it all.

We're due to have our apple tree pruned on Monday - I'll bet we don't get it done because the tree people will be busy dealing with the storm damage.

The thing I remember about 87 was going into the garage the previous day and it was loaded with spiders. They must have sensed it coming and searched for cover.

Following morning they had nearly all gone.

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Lets be careful out there !

***UPDATED SUNDAY OCTOBER 27th @ 14:45 hrs***

You will all no doubt be pleased and relieved to hear that barring an extraordinary and totally unforseen turnaround this storm will be nothing like 1987, or the one in 1990 for that matter. One word of caution though, just such a turnaround happened with the 1987 storm so while it is possible, it is extremely unlikely.

IF ANYTHING THE SITUATION LOOKS TO HAVE MODERATED SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
INFORMATION

Maximum wind gusts in the '87 storm were I believe somewhere between 110-120 mph, with gusts even in London of between 80-90mph. I am 98% certain we are not going to see anything like those values this time around.

It is already a breezy afternoon here, with gusts of 45 mph and whilst there may be a slight lull the winds are set to reach a peak after midnight, hopefully easing slightly before the morning commute.

My thoughts on maximum windspeeds are:

Greater London area: 50-60mph

Surrounding Home Counties, ie: Herts, Bucks, Berks, Surrey: 55-70mph

West and East Sussex, Kent, Hamshire: 55-75mph

Coastal fringes of the above counties may have occasional gusts reaching 75-90mph.

These figures are my thoughts only, and not to be taken as fact. Please consult the usual official sources, in particular the Met Office.

Another piece of relatively good news is that the storm will be a fast mover, sweeping across the country in just a few short hours. By around 6-9am Monday morning it should be heading out into the North Sea, where it will strengthen further. Unfortunately for Eastern Coastal Counties they will probably see the worst of the winds during the morning commute, though again, timing is far from certain.

Thank you as always for reading and posting. Take care and be safe.

Moley

I raise my cap to the likes of SOT and the brave men and women of the Emergency Services. Likewise the Coastguards and my particular favourite, the RNLI. Bless you all.

Many thanks for the welcome. As I mentioned elsewhere I'm Jane's husband and being she always took an interest in your weather posts I thought I'd take a look.
Well it's not too bad out there at present. Lets hope your thoughts and predictions are correct and we all have a safe night !!

It's raining a bit now but no strong winds yet

Fab weather today, managed 40 miles, including pub meal and a spot of badminton playing, it will be interesting to our regular Sunday route next week to survey the damage.

***UPDATED SUNDAY OCTOBER 27th 2013 @ 23:20hrs***

So far so good for most of us, with rain being the main feature at this time. That in itself leads me to think the storm MAY be taking a slightly different, and more southerly track. If that is the case, and it is still far from certain even now, the maximum wind gusts may be lower in London and The South East.

Even if that proves to be the case please don't be complacent, nature has a way of springing nasty suprises.

The Monday morning commute to work is already facing severe disruption as the train operating companies have announced widespread changes to their timetables, with some lines not planned to start operating until 9am.

Stay tuned to local tv and radio stations the latest information. Thanks as always for reading and posting.

Moley


RIP Lou Reed