**UPDATED FRIDAY FEBRUARY 1ST 2012 @ 06:15hrs**

The earlier threat of widespread severe gales for today has now completely gone, although it will remain quite breezy for most of us in London and The South East. Rain will be the main problem today, but only in an annoying way. Overall totals won't amount to much, and there is little, if any risk of flooding in our region.

Once this rain band has cleared the south later today we will begin to feel the effects of much colder air following behind, from a north/north westerly direction. It was with this change in mind that I thought we may see further snowfall on SATURDAY, but that threat has also significantly back-tracked although Eastern Coastal areas may see the occasional wintry shower. Temperatures will be noticably lower....struggling to reach 4-5c ( 39-41f ).

SUNDAY will see another reversal, as temperatures temporarily climb again and an area of rain crosses much of the Uk, reaching London and the South East by afternoon. Maximum temps possibly 9-11c ( 48-52f ).

The beginning of the next working week is showing signs of becoming colder again, with an increasing risk of wintry showers as the week progresses. More on that nearer the time, but in the meantime, have a good weekend whatever the weather.

Moley

Glad the wind is gone. It was horrendous yesterday! (Messed my hair up, mutter, mumble, mutter..........

Good afternoon all. Having said my bit in the Heavy Chat Forum I thought I would seek some sanctuary back here in the Weather Topic.

The main focus of the weather here in London and The South East so far this week seems to have been the wind. Gusts of over 30mph were a frequent feature here since last Sunday, with both Raf Northolt and Heathrow recording several hours of these conditions every day this week. Thats the Atlantic influence in all its glory.

Looking ahead though there could be a change on the way.

A weak front looks set to cross the country later today ( THURSDAY ) but not affect us to much here in our region. Cloudy with some light rain is the most likely outcome. This front is likely to stall and keep our region under cloud for much of FRIDAY.

SATURDAY is showing some signs of a slight improvement and we may just see some clearer skies and dare I say, some sunshine. After that though it looks to be a downhill ride , and some cold weather fans are starting to get excited. The reason being a possible Low Pressure System developing in The North Sea, and heading south. Otherwise known as a North Sea Slider. ( Yes really, weather systems are given nicknames !! ).

If this materialises it would deliver a thouroughly miserable day to our region on SUNDAY, cold and wet with temperatures around 4-5c ( 39-41f ) and rain.

IF, and its still a big IF at this stage, that Low Pressure System follows the predicted path it could well draw in some very cold air from a north easterly direction, and that may well lead to rain readily turning to snow on MONDAY into TUESDAY. I believe The Met Office have already put out some warnings to this effect.

Thanks as always for reading and posting. Moley

Very bitter cold wind Tue & Wed.

What's it looking like for the first week of March in your crystal ball as I need it to warm up a bit?

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Lets be careful out there !

Far too early for me to hazard a guess at this stage Kremmen. I rarely look further than 5 days ahead, and for greater accuracy when it comes to forecasting snow, 12 hours is about the limit in this country. That was highlighted this evening when the light rain I predicted earlier fell as snow in South London and parts of Surrey and Sussex

The folk who do try and predict much further ahead seem to be saying March will get off to a colder than average start though. I'll take that with a pinch of salt ( or grit ) for now !!

Moley

Ta

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Lets be careful out there !

Hmmmm. Looking back on this post I made on Thursday I'm beginning to think it may be time for me to hang up my seaweed and smash my crystal ball

Here's the autopsy:

THURSDAY night: Well in fairness, much of London did only get light rain, but to the south of London it fell as snow in a good many locations. VERDICT: 5/10

FRIDAY: I said cloudy for much of our region. Most of us enjoyed some pleasant sunshine for most of the day. VERDICT: Poor call. 2/10

SATURDAY: I said, signs of a slight improvement, clearer skies and possibly some sunshine. Its been the complete opposite, grey and drizzly for most of us, with the exception of Essex, which has had some sunshine. VERDICT: Extremely poor call. 1/10

'NORTH SEA SLIDER' : I predicted the Low Pressure System would form to our east, in The North Sea. It seems to be forming to our west, over Ireland. VERDICT: Only a distance of about 100 miles out, but still a very poor call. 2/10

It seems that up till now I have been about 24 hours and 100 or so miles out so Im reluctant to comment on the prospects for Sunday/Monday and Tuesday. In my defence though the Met Office have been changing their forecast quicker than I can change my socks so I may come back for another look later.

Moley

Well having bashed myself up in the previous post I think its only fair I redress the balance and say I have at least got today ( SUNDAY ) absolutely spot on. Current termperature at Raf Northolt 4.9c with rain since early morning. VERDICT : 10/10

Now as for the snow threat, that is a still a rapidly changing situation, but SOME parts of London and The South East could see the rain turning to snow as early as this afternoon/evening. The centre of the Low Pressure System is off to our south west, and currently heading in an east/south easterly direction. That should eventually draw in some colder air from the near continent, hence the change of rain to snow for SOME.

The most likely spots for snow appear to be Kent, East Sussex and Essex ( away from the coastal fringes ) whilst further inland I would say north and east of London, the Chilterns and perhaps the M4 corridor over higher ground in Berkshire. Elsewhere its more likely to be a rain/sleet/snow mix, and this will probably fizzle out overnight for most of our region.

All reports and updates welcome. Moley

Lots of views but no comments. Perhaps it is indeed time to hang up the seaweed.

Snowing now in Northwood though. I got that one spot on !!

Moley

No comments are better than bad ones. Keep going, you're doing a good job. Thank you.

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Posts often deleted................Why? I don't know.