Unfortunately not as I got the message via Facebook but due to my ride being advertised on the internet I've had calls from residents asking me if I knew if it was cancelled that was at about 4pm

Sorry to hear about your car problems SOT but if it's dry weather you are hoping for, you are out of luck for the next few days at least. The unsettled spell is firmly locked in for the time being, so expect further spells of wet and windy weather.

On a positive note it is noticeably mild. 16.9c at 9.30pm in mid to late October is quite unusual.

Moley

***UPDATED TUESDAY OCTOBER 22nd 2013 @ 00:50 Hours***

Since my last post the temperature has continued to slowly rise and reached 17.9c at midnight in the London area, a result of a very moist and unstable airflow originating from the Azores.

All eyes to the west now as an Atlantic Low Pressure System heads our way and engages with this set up during Tuesday and the potential is there for some severe weather developing across parts of London and The South East later on Tuesday.

This is showing all the signs of being a near repeat of the situation which occurred on Sunday. Some areas may avoid the rain altogether, whilst other locations could see a repeat of the torrential downpours and possible thunderstorms, leading to localised flooding and possible wind damage.

I will try and keep this topic updated, but it may be worth keeping an eye and ear open for local reports and forecasts during the day.

Thanks for reading and posting. Moley

Looks like just constant rain for the next 5 days or so.

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Lets be careful out there !

Talk about mild. It was 17C in Marylebone at 05:30 this morning. That must be exceptional for October!?

*** UPDATED TUESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2013 @ 18:00 Hrs***

Slightly later in the day than originally thought but we now have a fast developing situation to our south and south west.

Thunderstorms originating in the English Channel are now making landfall in Dorset and sweeping approximately north east. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and very strong wind gusts are now being reported from several locations in that county, Poole in particular.

Another area of heavy rain has formed to the east of this belt, and has come ashore in West Sussex, heading towards areas south east of London, including East Sussex and Kent. There is now a risk of severe weather occuring almost anywhere in London and The South East during the next few hours, and that risk now extends overnight and into the Wednesday morning rush hour.

I will try and keep this topic updated.

Moley

*** LATEST UPDATE***

WARNINGS issued by TORRO at 21:35 Hrs BST, TUESDAY OCTOBER 22nd 2013.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

I will be posting further information later.

Moley

Met Office have changed their forecast for late Wed and Thurs to be mainly dry

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Lets be careful out there !

Yes indeed they have Kremm, and today has been mostly sunny and mild, tempered by some very gusty winds though. A 38mph gust was recorded at Raf Northolt earlier, and down on the South Coast gusts have been close to 50mph. As you say, Thursday looks like being mostly dry but the next Atlantic system will be heading in from the west later in the day with rain likely to reach our region by Friday.

Saturday should see a drier brighter interlude, before another system delivers further rain to London and The South East on Sunday. Remaining fairly mild throughout, though perhaps a few degrees cooler at night than it has been lately. To answer SOT's question above ( sorry for the delay ), yes 17c at 5.30am in the 3rd week of October is very unusual. I believe the record minimum temperature is 17.8c so the other night must have come very close to breaking that. Try as I might I haven't been able to find any actual figures.

There is growing interest in the potential for a significant Autumn storm to develop on Sunday and into Monday. Some of the weather computer models picked up this idea a couple of days ago, and are still keen to run with the idea, while other models are having none of it at this time. Something else I will be trying to keep an eye on.

Moley

About last nights storms:

It seems as though the worst of the severe weather actually occurred in the evening on Tuesday October 22nd, with very little being reported overnight, despite the Torro warning I posted above.

There was a well defined line of thunderstorms running from north west France, across the Channel Islands and into Dorset and Hampshire. These storms continued to track roughly north east, affecting parts of Berkshire, Surrey, West London, Buckinghamshire and up into the Midlands.

Here in Northwood I was treated to a quite spectacular lightning display, the first 30-40 minutes of which were notable for the fact there was no rain, and no thunder, just frequent vivid lightning. The remarkable thing is the lightning was clearly originating very many miles away, because the skies above me were completely clear, with stars clearly visible. This was born out by both the radar feeds I was watching at the time, and live 'reports' I was following on several weather websites.

The storm/storms eventually arrived overhead giving rise to strong winds and torrential rain which lasted about 10-15 minutes before continuing their journey north. I would say this was a fairly unusual event, more in keeping with a classic 'Spanish Plume' summer storm set-up.

The areas around the Isle of Wight, Portsmouth and Southampton were the focal point as the storms came ashore, and the football match at Fratton Park Portsmouth was abandoned as a result. This is why :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEzgN1FBGsQ

I think they may have been taking their naval links a bit too literally !! Further photo's and video from that area below :

http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/story/ ... the-south/


Moley