This from the Met Office sums up the current thinking with regards to the weekend :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrWJzYxqAIE

Computer models are useful in many respects but always subject to change. Predicting the path and development of Atlantic Low Pressure systems will never be an exact science, and for that reason alone it's worth keeping a close ear and eye on the forecasts nearer the time. For all it's supposed faults the Met Office is probably as good a source as any.

Moley

I posted this a few days ago regarding the temperatures in July.

Quote : I'm just having a quick look back at the reports for July 2014 and the records show the heat really kicked in from the 10th of the month. Whilst no records were broken, the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 25c ( 77F ) somewhere in the UK ( mostly in our region ) every day from the 10th to the 31st of the month. That is quite some spell of warm weather. ..Unquote

Since then the temperature has reached or exceeded 25c ( 77f ) on all but one day in August, the exception being 24.5c on August 3rd. That's still an impressive run of 27 days exceeding 25c and one day falling just a fraction of a degree lower in the last 28 days. The heat is still on, but things may be about to change soon.

Moley

BBC weather app showing a decidedly dodgy Sun/Mon/Tue

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Lets be careful out there !

*** Updated Saturday August 9th 2014 ***

The Met Office have updated their warning for the possibility of severe weather affecting the UK on Sunday August 10th as per the following statement :



Issued at: 1117 on Sat 9 Aug 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sun 10 Aug 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sun 10 Aug 2014



There is the potential for severe weather over much of the UK during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast but the public should be aware of the risk of flooding due to heavy rain as well as very strong winds and large waves, particularly on the southern side of the depression. Given the unseasonable nature of the weather this could be sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous. This is a particularly volatile situation, and this alert is likely to be updated as the event approaches. The public are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and alerts through the weekend.



Chief Forecaster's assessment



The remains of hurricane Bertha, west of the Bay of Biscay on Saturday morning, now possess the characteristics of a mid-latitude depression, albeit with very warm air wrapped up within it. This feature is expected to move towards the UK before deepening on Saturday night and Sunday morning. There is increasing confidence that this depression will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity. There is the potential for rainfall totals of more than 50 mm in places and coastal gusts of over 60 mph, along with large waves. The locations affected are very dependent on the track of the low but the heaviest rainfall is thought most likely around and to the northwest of the low centre whilst the strongest winds are most likely around the southern flank of the low.



http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

My personal advice would be to check the Met Office website and other ( local ) sources, ie: Tv and radio stations over the next 24 hours or so. I say this for the simple reason that with it being a weekend in the peak holiday season, it's far more likely that folk will be out and about and therefore at more risk should severe weather occur.

Take care and thanks as always for reading. Moley

Here are the latest satellite images as ex hurricane Bertha approaches the UK as an Atlantic low pressure system:

http://www.sat24.com/

Moley

From what I can tell we are due a bit of wind and rain (50mph) about 10-11 as it moves North.

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Lets be careful out there !

Well looking back on things we did see some wind and rain here in Northwood around that time, though the winds were nothing like 50mph. Had a couple of rumbles of thunder here as well around 10:30am this morning.

The main feature in this neck of the woods was around 2:30pm when an active squall line barreled through giving 15 minutes or so of frequent thunder and lightning, some very strong wind gusts and torrential rain. The official temperature at Raf Northolt fell from 22c to 17c ( 72f to 63f ) in a very short space of time during that squall.

Immediately after that the temperature, pressure and wind speeds picked up quite sharply as the skies cleared behind the main band of weather.

I will be looking at, and hopefully posting about the prospects in our region for the next few days but have to admit I am slightly disillusioned in some ways by the response** and wonder whether it is worth the effort.

** I would like to make it clear I am very appreciative of the one or two folk who take the time and trouble to post a reply. It can be a bit galling though when in the last 72 hours, this topic has received 296 views and only 2 replies. I have done my best to introduce new members and if anyone has any ideas how to improve on that I would welcome them.

Thanks as always. Moley

Moley, I would like to put on record my appreciation for your efforts. I dont always reply, but you should not take that as a vote of non interest. You forecasts are very reliable and very very local as is the info that you give after the event.

For example, I live close to RAF Northolt and experienced that 'squall line' you mention above. For a few seconds it was bloody terrifying as the wind got stronger and stronger over a period of 90 seconds and then died off within a few minutes. Then the sun came out!!

Its plainly up to you how you proceed, but I would miss (and have missed) your report

Many thanks for your reply SOT.

I started this ( weather ) topic a few years ago as a way of sharing my hobby and hopefully encouraging more members to join the website and contribute in one way or another on this and other topics. Since the original website crashed and was restarted in January 2012 this topic has received over 51,000 views but gets very few responses.

Its quite disheartening to be honest.

Moley

I watched the pressure plummet throughout the day and waited and waited but nothing of any real note occurred.

There was heavy rain about 09:00 for 15 to 20 minutes and a few heavy wind gusts about 16:00 for a few hours but fortunately I think we missed the worst of it.

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Lets be careful out there !