Oh dear, whilst it won't be a 'washout' in Eastbourne this week, it will be quite dissapointing following on from what was a very pleasant weekend down there according to reliable local sources.

Once again the computer models have underestimated the potential for rainfall, and overestimated the temperatures for London and The South East this week.

That's the reason I am still keeping an open mind about this 'potential heatwave' I keep reading about. The models have performed badly for a while now, and the forecasts and predictions are very much based on them.

The Met Office are becoming increasingly confident/bullish about the prospects of a very warm/hot and dry spell of weather from the end of this week, but I can't help thinking they could be leaving themselves wide open to criticism this far ahead. Based on current available information they could well be right.........BUT.....time will tell. Here is what they have to say:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013 ... r-weather/

Fingers crossed eh?? Moley

Official Met Office figures have confirmed that the CET *** ( Central England Temperature ) for June 2013 was again below the 30 year average they base their monthly observations on.

So it is the 10th consecutive month of below average CET's, and 11 of the last 12 months have been below average, the one exception being August 2012. Figures for the last 12 months are:
( All temperatures in Celsius )

2012

Jul: 15.5 ( -1.0 )
Aug: 16.6 ( +0.1)
Sep: 13.0 ( -0.6 )
Oct: 9.7 ( -0.7 )
Nov: 6.8 ( -0.1 )
Dec: 4.8 ( -0.3 )

2013

Jan: 3.5 ( -0.7 )
Feb: 3.2 ( -1.0 )
Mar: 2.7 ( -3.6 )
Apr: 7.5 ( -0.6 )
May: 10.4 ( -0.9 )
Jun: 13.6 ( -0.5 )

Whilst the differences may not seem to large in the overall scheme of things they do indicate a trend which has been continuing for a number of years here in the UK, and they confirm that March 2013 was an absolute shocker !!

*** CET:
http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.a ... ataent_CET

No further comment from me, just thought I would put that information out there. Thanks for reading. Moley

Brilliant, thanks

Thank you for allowing me this topic Jon. Just out of interest when the current temperature pops up at the top of the screen, where is that reporting from....it's pretty much spot on every day ??

Moley

I'm having particular trouble sleeping tonight so apart from sorting out important things I've had another quick look at the weather prospects for the days ahead.

This week is still a mixed bunch, temperatures down in the South West only just reached 15c on Tuesday which is pretty shabby for July. It wasn't much better here in London to be honest.

All the signs are still pointing towards a very pleasant spell of warm and sunny weather for London and the South East from Friday/Saturday, but for some reason I have a nagging doubt that we will not be seeing the extended heatwave predicted by some of the usual suspects in the media. I hope I'm wrong of course.

The Azore High seems pretty determined to make it's presence felt by the weekend, thats a welcome sign, and the Jet Stream is about to head way off to the north of the UK at last. That's two good signs.

Wind direction and colder than usual sea surface temperatures around the UK are the reason I'm still hedging my bets. Those two factors may well produce a lot of cloud cover for many regions, and peg temperatures back, Eastern and Southern Coasts in particular. Still too early to say with any certainty though. Keep those fingers crossed.

Moley

Moley

Here comes Summer ?!

Slowly but surely I am climbing off the forecast/prediction fence as we head towards the 'reliable time frame' and there is still widespread agreement between the computer models and ensembles, the likes of which are very rarely seen.

This weekend should herald the start of some very pleasant weather for most of us in London and The South East, and it's expected to last for at least 7 days.

Over on the weather websites I visit folk are trying to predict where, when and what the highest temperature will be in the UK during this spell so just for fun maybe we could try it here ?

Inland areas are obviously favoured owing to the below average sea temperatures, and cooling sea breezes around our coasts, and for that reason I think the usual hotspot of Gravesend
( Kent ) can be ruled out, but The Solent may spring a suprise. The London area seems an obvious choice given the UHI ( Urban Heat Island ) effect, so St James Park and Heathrow are amongst the favourites.

Personally though I am going for west is best, and I think somewhere in Gloucestershire or Worcestershire may come out tops, and towards the end of next week ( Thursday ? ) I think somewhere in that region may record 31c ( 88f ).

Please feel free to add your thoughts and predictions.

Moley

Currently very fine drizzle which hopefully will clear up later.

_________________
Lets be careful out there !

In Cornwall at the moment for a friend's wedding in a hotel overlooking the beach and the weather is dismal! (Shame as it was lovely yesterday
!) Good job the wedding is inside!

No takers there then

Ok, so if anyone out there is remotely interested in watching the sky, conditions should be favourable for viewing Noctilucent Clouds in the next few days. Not as spectacular as the Northern Lights ( Aurora Borealis ) I admit, but still worth a look. If conditions are right they appear after sunset, and at this time year in our location usually from between about 10:30 - 11:30pm.

http://www.universetoday.com/102804/an- ... nt-clouds/

Moley

Thanks Moley - If I'm still awake I might just do that